The Cigna Group
CI高于价值预期 · 温和10 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +11.2%
- 净利率
- 2.2%
- ROE
- 14.3%
- FCF 利润率
- —
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$167
中枢 IV
$189
乐观上沿
$224
The Cigna Group（CI）：保守价值带 $167–$224 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $189。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $284 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 0%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $167
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $165.80 – $219.84 · Greenwald 零增长 $223.97 · 零增长基准 $223.97 · 重置 $18.51
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 7% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$167.14 – $223.97 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$180.87 – $221.06 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 7.8%；公司过去营收年增 11.5%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 5 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
10 位持有 · 合计 $4.71B · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$3.08B权重（上季→本季）1.7% → 1.7% ▲
- 市值$693.1M权重（上季→本季）1.4% → 1.8% ▲
- 市值$595.9M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 2.7% ▲
- 市值$154.3M权重（上季→本季）0.5% → 0.5% ▲
- 市值$86.7M权重（上季→本季）3.0% → 2.8% ▼
- 市值$61.0M权重（上季→本季）0.3% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$23.6M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$8.3M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 1.9% ▼
- 市值$3.9M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$1.4M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.1%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
The Cigna Group（CI）被 Compounder 追踪的 10 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $4.71B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 1.7%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 1.8%），Christopher Davis（占其组合 2.7%） 和 Richard Pzena（占其组合 0.5%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 CI 仓位，6 位加仓，2 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 The Cigna Group（CI）的这些人还共同重仓 →
CI 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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