跳到主内容
Compounder
← 个股

Intuit Inc

INTU低于价值带预期 · 温和

13 位超级投资者持有。

现价$289.92
安全边际−34%
持有人数13
合计市值$1.34B

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-07-31
营收增速
+15.6%
净利率
20.5%
ROE
19.6%
FCF 利润率
32.5%
营收 $7.68B → $18.83B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

安全边际

$442/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$290
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$104

中枢 IV

$442

乐观上沿

$574

Intuit Inc(INTU):保守价值带 $104–$574 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $442。今日价格低于这条带(价格 $290 截至 2026-07-21)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

营收增 17%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $104

价格截至 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.

方法与数字

模型警示

  • 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $146.72 – $573.92 · Greenwald 零增长 $130.12 · 零增长基准 $130.12 · 重置 $29.53

护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 32% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$104.48 – $130.12 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 57% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$104.06 – $127.18 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 57% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $428.00M + 资本化研发 $7.93B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $29.53 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。

增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 17% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

价格在赌什么

现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 11.9%;公司过去营收年增 19.3%

低于它自己做到过的。

粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 7 年,才刚好撑得起。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

13 位持有 · 合计 $1.34B · 本季 +4 新建 / -3 清仓

本季动向4 家新进2 家加仓5 家减仓3 家清仓
持有人 11 → 2 · 近 8 季
展开全部 13 位持有人
  • 市值$676,242权重(上季→本季)0.1% 0.0%
  • 市值$413,788权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.3%
  • 市值$242,133权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Intuit Inc(INTU)被 Compounder 追踪的 13 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $1.34B。仓位最大的是 Ravenel Boykin Curry,占其组合 3.4%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Nick Train(占其组合 6.6%)Dev Kantesaria(占其组合 2.4%)Fred Martin(占其组合 0.8%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 4 位新建 INTU 仓位,2 位加仓,5 位减仓,3 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Intuit Inc(INTU)的这些人还共同重仓 →

INTU 现价低于保守价值带。 按安全边际浏览全部低估股

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

订阅更新

新一季 13F 异动与估值更新,发到你的邮箱。