Mastercard Inc - A
MA高于价值预期 · 苛刻22 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +16.4%
- 净利率
- 45.6%
- ROE
- 193.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 52.3%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$150
中枢 IV
$240
乐观上沿
$281
Mastercard Inc - A（MA）：保守价值带 $150–$281 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $240。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $617 截至 2026-10-16）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 5%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.8% · 零增长下行 $150
价格截至 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $162.83 – $281.36 · Greenwald 零增长 $193.04 · 零增长基准 $193.04
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 21% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$149.87 – $186.53 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 388% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$157.94 – $193.04 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 388% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 16.5%；公司过去营收年增 4.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
22 位持有 · 合计 $8.28B · 本季 +2 新建 / -3 清仓
- 市值$1.38B权重（上季→本季）1.0% → 4.2% ▲
- 市值$1.09B权重（上季→本季）新建 · 5.6%
- 市值$1.02B权重（上季→本季）18.6% → 20.0% ▲
- 市值$934.1M权重（上季→本季）1.2% → 2.1% ▲
- 市值$781.9M权重（上季→本季）9.1% → 8.8% ▼
- 市值$639.5M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 4.7%
- 市值$586.5M权重（上季→本季）5.3% → 5.1% ▼
- 市值$547.5M权重（上季→本季）22.0% → 17.6% ▼
- 市值$392.7M权重（上季→本季）6.3% → 9.3% ▲
- 市值$258.3M权重（上季→本季）5.1% → 7.9% ▲
展开全部 22 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$186.7M权重（上季→本季）2.5% → 1.8% ▼
- 市值$106.6M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.8% ▼
- 市值$97.6M权重（上季→本季）1.5% → 2.3% ▲
- 市值$90.1M权重（上季→本季）9.1% → 8.0% ▼
- 市值$74.7M权重（上季→本季）5.1% → 5.2% ▲
- 市值$51.9M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$20.5M权重（上季→本季）14.8% → 14.3% ▼
- 市值$14.8M权重（上季→本季）0.5% → 0.5% ▼
- 市值$6.0M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$797,621权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.2% ▼
- 市值$601,939权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$338,038权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Mastercard Inc - A（MA）被 Compounder 追踪的 22 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $8.28B。仓位最大的是 Ravenel Boykin Curry，占其组合 4.2%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Bill Ackman（占其组合 5.6%），Chuck Akre（占其组合 20.0%） 和 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 2.1%）。
截至 2026-06-30 的这一季，追踪范围内有 2 位新建 MA 仓位，7 位加仓，8 位减仓，3 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Mastercard Inc - A（MA）的这些人还共同重仓 →
MA 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-17 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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