Innovative Solutions & Supp
ISSC低于价值带1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-09-30估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +78.6%
- 净利率
- 18.5%
- ROE
- 24.2%
- FCF 利润率
- 8.1%
估值 · 价值带
安全边际
零增长底
$5
中枢 IV
$27
乐观上沿
$33
Innovative Solutions & Supp（ISSC）：保守价值带 $5–$33 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $27。今日价格低于这条带（价格 $25 截至 2026-10-14）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 20%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 11.2% · 零增长下行 $5
价格截至 2026-10-14 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $8.11 – $33.06 · Greenwald 零增长 $9.22 · 零增长基准 $9.22 · 重置 $1.41
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 31% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$7.11 – $9.22 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 57% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$5.35 – $6.48 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.4–11.4% band (9–11% base + 0.4pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 57% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.4pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.9 years of owner earnings, adding 0.4pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $15.39M + 资本化研发 $10.37M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $1.41 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 12% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 3.9 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.4 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.4%–11.4%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 20% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.05%–12.45% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.45pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 19.0%；公司过去营收年增 30.0%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 8 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $354,474 · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$354,474权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Innovative Solutions & Supp（ISSC）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $354,474。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham，占其组合 0.0%。
截至 2026-06-30 的这一季，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 ISSC 仓位，0 位加仓，0 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
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数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-13 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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