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Lam Research Corp

LRCX高于价值

9 位超级投资者持有。

现价$307.65
持有人数9
合计市值$4.71B

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2026-06-28
营收增速
+26.0%
净利率
31.3%
ROE
58.3%
FCF 利润率
21.1%
营收 $14.63B → $23.23B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$79/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$308
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$42

中枢 IV

$79

乐观上沿

$96

Lam Research Corp(LRCX):保守价值带 $42–$96 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $79。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $308 截至 2026-09-04)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

  • 资本开支两年翻倍,维持性投入难分清,价值带按保守口径读。

营收增 7%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $42

价格截至 2026-09-04 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-03.

方法与数字

模型警示

  • 资本开支两年翻倍:维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶(OE 可能偏乐观);Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
  • 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。
  • 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $46.29 – $95.99 · Greenwald 零增长 $58.31 · 零增长基准 $58.31 · 重置 $13.30

护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 24% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 4.8%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$47.97 – $58.31 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$42.33 – $51.73 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $10.57B + 资本化研发 $6.21B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $13.30 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。

增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍(AI-hog),成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF,避免双重计入。

窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 11% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.27%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-03). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

价格在赌什么

现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 23.7%;公司过去营收年增 7.0%

市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。

价值带信心不足时仍可对照:这里只说明市场在赌多快,不把它当成「确认便宜」。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

9 位持有 · 合计 $4.71B · 本季 +3 新建 / -1 清仓

本季动向3 家新进4 家减仓1 家清仓
持有人 7 → 9 · 近 7 季
本季清仓(1)

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Lam Research Corp(LRCX)被 Compounder 追踪的 9 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $4.71B。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham,占其组合 5.3%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Chase Coleman(占其组合 5.7%)Ray Dalio(占其组合 1.7%)Polen Capital(占其组合 3.2%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 3 位新建 LRCX 仓位,0 位加仓,4 位减仓,1 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Lam Research Corp(LRCX)的这些人还共同重仓 →

看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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