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Molina Healthcare Inc

MOH高于价值

5 位超级投资者持有。

现价$202.91
持有人数5
合计市值$390.0M

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-12-31

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

营收增速
+11.7%
净利率
1.0%
ROE
11.6%
FCF 利润率
-1.4%
营收 $19.42B → $45.43B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$54/ 股 · 零增长内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$203
更便宜更贵

$54–$60 价值估计

Molina Healthcare Inc(MOH):一项保守的盈利能力估计,$54–$60 / 股;今日价格高于它(价格 $203 截至 2026-09-03)。

零增长下行 $54

价格截至 2026-09-03 · yahoo.

方法与数字

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

· Greenwald 零增长 $60.22 · 零增长基准 $60.22 · 重置 $38.52

护城河 商品化.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$53.58 – $60.22 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value

Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $1.98B = $38.52 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。

窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

5 位持有 · 合计 $390.0M · 本季 +1 新建 / -2 清仓

本季动向1 家新进1 家加仓1 家减仓2 家清仓
持有人 3 → 4 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$219.0M权重(上季→本季)0.2% 0.3%
  • 市值$144.9M权重(上季→本季)1.7% 2.7%
  • 市值$23.9M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 35.1%
  • 市值$1.9M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$245,853权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%
本季清仓(2)

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Molina Healthcare Inc(MOH)被 Compounder 追踪的 5 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $390.0M。仓位最大的是 Bill Nygren,占其组合 0.3%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Seth Klarman(占其组合 2.7%)Michael Burry(占其组合 35.1%)Ray Dalio(占其组合 0.0%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 MOH 仓位,1 位加仓,1 位减仓,2 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Molina Healthcare Inc(MOH)的这些人还共同重仓 →

MOH 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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新一季 13F 异动与估值更新,发到你的邮箱。