Sally Beauty Holdings Inc
SBH低于价值带1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-09-30估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- -0.4%
- 净利率
- 5.3%
- ROE
- 24.7%
- FCF 利润率
- 4.7%
估值 · 价值带
安全边际
零增长底
$17
中枢 IV
$18
乐观上沿
$22
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc（SBH）：保守价值带 $17–$22 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $18。今日价格低于这条带（价格 $16 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.7% · 零增长下行 $17
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离（超过 300 个基点）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $16.34 – $21.25 · Greenwald 零增长 $21.73 · 零增长基准 $21.73 · 重置 $2.88
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 36% · 所有者盈利收益率 12% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$16.61 – $21.73 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 99% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$17.81 – $21.72 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.1–11.1% band (9–11% base + 0.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 99% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.2 years of owner earnings, adding 0.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $282.29M = $2.88 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 3.2 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.1 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.1%–11.1%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.32%–12.12% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.12pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 -2.2%；公司过去营收年增 0.3%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 1 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $421,400 · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$421,400权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc（SBH）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $421,400。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham，占其组合 0.0%。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 SBH 仓位，0 位加仓，1 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
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数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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