Adobe Inc
ADBE低于价值带预期 · 温和13 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-11-28- 营收增速
- +10.5%
- 净利率
- 30.0%
- ROE
- 61.3%
- FCF 利润率
- 41.4%
估值 · 价值带
安全边际
零增长底
$147
中枢 IV
$362
乐观上沿
$459
Adobe Inc(ADBE):两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF,一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计,$147–$459 / 股。今日价格低于二者(价格 $235 截至 2026-07-20)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 10%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $147
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $175.75 – $459.38 · Greenwald $239.39 – $403.42 (中性 $327.57) · 零增长基准 $180.72 · 重置 $11.59
护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 27% · 所有者盈利收益率 7% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$147.36 – $180.51 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 125% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$147.86 – $180.72 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 125% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
资产地板:Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。
增长价值:若护城河在 20 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 163%,则 $58.67–$222.70 / 股(中性 $146.85)。保守估计,非预测。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 10% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 10%。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 4.8%;公司过去营收年增 12.4%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 5 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
13 位持有 · 合计 $1.54B · 本季 +3 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$606.6M权重(上季→本季)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$557.6M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.7%
- 市值$247.9M权重(上季→本季)2.2% → 1.6% ▼
- 市值$72.3M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 2.7%
- 市值$26.3M权重(上季→本季)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$11.0M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.1%
- 市值$6.1M权重(上季→本季)1.1% → 1.3% ▲
- 市值$3.9M权重(上季→本季)1.6% → 2.7% ▲
- 市值$2.9M权重(上季→本季)2.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$1.4M权重(上季→本季)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
展开全部 13 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$1.1M权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$318,921权重(上季→本季)1.6% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$245,511权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Adobe Inc(ADBE)被 Compounder 追踪的 13 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $1.54B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox,占其组合 0.3%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Bill Nygren(占其组合 0.7%),William von Mueffling(占其组合 1.6%) 和 Samantha McLemore(占其组合 2.7%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 3 位新建 ADBE 仓位,6 位加仓,3 位减仓,1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Adobe Inc(ADBE)的这些人还共同重仓 →
ADBE 现价低于保守价值带。 按安全边际浏览全部低估股
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新,发到你的邮箱。