Ally Financial Inc
ALLY带内6 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +3.8%
- 净利率
- 68.5%
- ROE
- 5.5%
- FCF 利润率
- —
估值 · 价值带
处于合理价值区间
零增长底
$49
中枢 IV
$26
乐观上沿
$49
Ally Financial Inc（ALLY）：保守价值带 $49 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $26。今日价格落在这条带内（价格 $45 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $49
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
现价已等于或低于可重置的有形资产基础（$49 / 股）— 一道更罕见、更硬的地板。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $22.68 – $29.81 · Greenwald 零增长 $48.90 · 零增长基准 $48.90 · 重置 $48.90
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 6% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$24.74 – $30.24 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $15.31B = $48.90 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC，故不计入增长价值。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 10.6%；公司过去营收年增 10.8%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 7 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
6 位持有 · 合计 $2.39B · 本季 +1 新建 / -2 清仓
- 市值$1.14B权重（上季→本季）0.5% → 0.4% ▼
- 市值$1.04B权重（上季→本季）1.6% → 1.4% ▼
- 市值$157.7M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 2.8% ▲
- 市值$51.3M权重（上季→本季）13.4% → 11.2% ▼
- 市值$8.8M权重（上季→本季）5.1% → 4.2% ▼
- 市值$1.3M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.1%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Ally Financial Inc（ALLY）被 Compounder 追踪的 6 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $2.39B。仓位最大的是 Warren Buffett，占其组合 0.4%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Bill Nygren（占其组合 1.4%），Donald Smith（占其组合 2.8%） 和 Quincy Lee（占其组合 11.2%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 ALLY 仓位，1 位加仓，1 位减仓，2 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Ally Financial Inc（ALLY）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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