Blackrock Inc
BLK高于价值预期 · 苛刻6 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +18.7%
- 净利率
- 22.9%
- ROE
- 9.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 14.7%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$340
中枢 IV
$357
乐观上沿
$585
Blackrock Inc（BLK）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$340–$585 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $1,054 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 0%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $340
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 两种方法的中值差异显著 — 增长假设值得复核（超过 20%）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $311.86 – $415.97 · Greenwald $497.45 – $584.58 (中性 $539.81) · 零增长基准 $442.43 · 重置 $150.82
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$360.51 – $442.43 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 592% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$339.57 – $415.04 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 592% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值：若护城河在 10 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 453%，则 $55.02–$142.16 / 股（中性 $97.38）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 41%。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 21.0%；公司过去营收年增 11.0%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 18 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
6 位持有 · 合计 $1.23B · 本季 +0 新建 / -2 清仓
- 市值$525.2M权重（上季→本季）10.6% → 9.2% ▼
- 市值$435.9M权重（上季→本季）3.0% → 2.9% ▼
- 市值$211.8M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 1.8% ▼
- 市值$52.5M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$683,776权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$333,713权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.2% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Blackrock Inc（BLK）被 Compounder 追踪的 6 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $1.23B。仓位最大的是 Mason Morfit，占其组合 9.2%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 William von Mueffling（占其组合 2.9%），Thomas Gayner（占其组合 1.8%） 和 Bill Nygren（占其组合 0.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 BLK 仓位，2 位加仓，2 位减仓，2 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Blackrock Inc（BLK）的这些人还共同重仓 →
BLK 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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