Elevance Health Inc
ELV高于价值13 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +12.5%
- 净利率
- 2.8%
- ROE
- 12.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 1.6%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$125
中枢 IV
$258
乐观上沿
$303
Elevance Health Inc（ELV）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$125–$303 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $403 截至 2026-08-26）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $125
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $227.44 – $298.60 · Greenwald $303.25 – $303.25 (中性 $303.25) · 零增长基准 $303.25 · 重置 $25.52
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 7% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$124.74 – $173.69 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 194% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$248.11 – $303.25 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 194% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $5.56B = $25.52 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值：若护城河在 10 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ -51%，则 $0.00–$0.00 / 股（中性 $0.00）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 16%。
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 8.5%；公司过去营收年增 9.8%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 6 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
13 位持有 · 合计 $4.77B · 本季 +1 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$1.90B权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 2.5% ▲
- 市值$654.2M权重（上季→本季）1.4% → 1.5% ▲
- 市值$576.8M权重（上季→本季）1.5% → 1.8% ▲
- 市值$493.1M权重（上季→本季）7.3% → 9.1% ▲
- 市值$378.8M权重（上季→本季）6.7% → 5.9% ▼
- 市值$377.8M权重（上季→本季）8.1% → 8.2% ▲
- 市值$131.5M权重（上季→本季）1.3% → 1.6% ▲
- 市值$94.2M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 2.9%
- 市值$86.8M权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.3% ▲
- 市值$60.3M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 1.8% ▼
展开全部 13 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$10.6M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 2.2% ▲
- 市值$2.5M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.2% ▲
- 市值$502,749权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Elevance Health Inc（ELV）被 Compounder 追踪的 13 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $4.77B。仓位最大的是 Bill Nygren，占其组合 2.5%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 1.5%），Ravenel Boykin Curry（占其组合 1.8%） 和 Seth Klarman（占其组合 9.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 ELV 仓位，4 位加仓，6 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Elevance Health Inc（ELV）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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