Servicenow Inc
NOW高于价值预期 · 公允5 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +20.9%
- 净利率
- 13.2%
- ROE
- 13.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 34.5%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$15
中枢 IV
$19
乐观上沿
$23
Servicenow Inc(NOW):保守价值带 $15–$23 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $19。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $95 截至 2026-07-22)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 6%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $15
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
所示年度的回购大体只抵消了股权激励(SBC)造成的稀释 — 应视为维持股本、而非净额回馈股东。
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $11.67 – $22.96 · Greenwald 零增长 $18.24 · 零增长基准 $18.24 · 重置 $14.83
护城河 特许经营(凭盈利增长) · 终值占现值 23% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$15.57 – $18.24 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$11.03 – $13.48 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $8.27B + 资本化研发 $7.26B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $14.83 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。
增长价值被闸至零 — 护城河来自盈利增长旁路,成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 6% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 25.6%;公司过去营收年增 23.8%。
和它自己一贯的水平差不多。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 14 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
5 位持有 · 合计 $1.09B · 本季 +3 新建 / -2 清仓
- 市值$760.0M权重(上季→本季)3.7% → 5.3% ▲
- 市值$156.8M权重(上季→本季)1.1% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$114.6M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 1.9%
- 市值$55.8M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 1.5%
- 市值$353,065权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.2%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Servicenow Inc(NOW)被 Compounder 追踪的 5 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $1.09B。仓位最大的是 Polen Capital,占其组合 5.3%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Chase Coleman(占其组合 0.7%),Chuck Akre(占其组合 1.9%) 和 C.T. Fitzpatrick(占其组合 1.5%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 3 位新建 NOW 仓位,1 位加仓,1 位减仓,2 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Servicenow Inc(NOW)的这些人还共同重仓 →
NOW 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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