Natera Inc
NTRA4 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +35.9%
- 净利率
- -9.0%
- ROE
- -12.2%
- FCF 利润率
- 4.7%
估值 · 价值带
估值
缺少可用市场价格，因此不把现价放进价值带位置条。
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
· 重置 $18.41
护城河 低于资产基础.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value
Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Net debt or owner earnings is unavailable, so no adjustment is made.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $1.20B + 资本化研发 $1.32B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $18.41 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 4% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
4 位持有 · 合计 $852.3M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$612.7M权重（上季→本季）13.6% → 20.9% ▲
- 市值$234.3M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 2.7% ▲
- 市值$5.0M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
- 市值$253,787权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Natera Inc（NTRA）被 Compounder 追踪的 4 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $852.3M。仓位最大的是 Stanley Druckenmiller，占其组合 20.9%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Lee Ainslie（占其组合 2.7%），Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.0%） 和 Polen Capital（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 NTRA 仓位，2 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Natera Inc（NTRA）的这些人还共同重仓 →
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数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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