Macro Methodology
This page explains why the home view shows only a small set of core signals: first identify Treasury market pressure, then keep sources, limits, and planned coverage in traceable second-level layers.
The home page is not a data directory
Following the information hierarchy of Google Finance, the home page answers what to look at first instead of listing every source. Low-usefulness, metadata-only, and TODO signals are downgraded to detail or methodology layers.
- Score 5: eligible for the home snapshot and market summary/watch list.
- Score 4: important supporting signal; may appear on the home page or driver module, but should not decide the verdict alone.
- Score 3: stays in detail/source layers for background cross-checks.
- Score 1-2: metadata-only, TODO, empty, or low-usefulness signals stay out of the main user path.
Confirm Before Attributing
The canonical package is less about adding more cards and more about confidence boundaries: funding, supply, macro, and policy signals all need cross-checks before one clean number becomes a full story.
- A single print can trigger a watch item, but not a high-confidence conclusion.
- High-confidence calls require a driver signal, independent confirmation, and acceptable freshness.
- Mixed frequencies are downgraded explicitly: daily pricing, weekly dealer/FCI, and monthly labor/inflation data should not be forced into one same-day story.
- Related indicators can add breadth, but should not be treated as fully independent evidence, such as SOFR, TGCR, and BGCR within the same repo-rate family.
Funding
Is short-end funding becoming expensive or tiered?
Supply
Is the market absorbing new duration supply cleanly?
Policy
Is the policy path still anchoring the front end?
- FOMC statement and minutes tone
- r-star / real policy gap
Macro Pricing
Do growth, inflation, and real rates support higher yields?
- Cleveland inflation nowcast
- Deeper labor details
| Indicator | Score | Display | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference Rates | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| ON RRP / SRP | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Repo Financing | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Fails / Specialness | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Auction Risk | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| SOMA | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Dealer Inventory | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Transactions / Liquidity | 4 | Detail page | Supporting signal |
| Market Share | 3 | Detail page | Supporting signal |
| Policy Expectations | 4 | Home overview | Supporting signal |
| Macro Pricing | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Macro Conditions | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
| Wage Pressure | 4 | Home overview | Supporting signal |
| Data Freshness | 5 | Home overview | Core signal |
Sourced from NY Fed reference rates; used in the home snapshot and Funding verdict.
New York Fed Reference Rates
Sourced from NY Fed facility operations; a core signal for reserve abundance and facility usage.
New York Fed Open Market Operations / Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 context
Sourced from NY Fed Primary Dealer Statistics; used across Funding and institutional behavior.
New York Fed Primary Dealer Statistics
Sourced from NY Fed dealer fails data; an early warning for funding stress and specialness.
New York Fed Primary Dealer Statistics
Sourced from Treasury auction calendar/results, contextualized with dealer, fails, and transaction data.
Treasury.gov Auctions / New York Fed dealer context
Sourced from NY Fed SOMA holdings; used to frame Fed holdings and duration supply.
New York Fed SOMA
Sourced from NY Fed dealer positions; a core signal for absorption and dealer balance-sheet pressure.
New York Fed Primary Dealer Statistics
Sourced from NY Fed dealer transaction data; a supporting signal for absorption.
New York Fed Primary Dealer Statistics
Sourced from NY Fed market share data; normally detail/background rather than top-level verdict.
New York Fed Market Share
Currently sourced from a manual SME file; a supporting signal for policy path and macro expectations.
Manual SME file / NY Fed Survey of Market Participants context
Sourced from FRED curve, real-yield, and breakeven series for nominal-real-breakeven decomposition. This is daily public data, so confidence is capped at medium without intraday and cross-asset professional confirmation.
FRED
Sourced through FRED for Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Chicago Fed NFCI/CFNAI, and BLS/BEA macro series. This module is confirmation, not a live driver; mixed frequencies cap same-day confidence.
FRED / Atlanta Fed GDPNow via FRED / Chicago Fed via FRED / BLS / BEA via FRED
Sourced through FRED from the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. It is a monthly, smoothed labor-cost confirmation layer for inflation stickiness and higher-for-longer analysis, not a live market driver.
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker via FRED
FRED (connected)
Curve, real yields, breakevens, CPI/PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker are connected; fiscal proxies are later extensions.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (connected)
GDPNow and the Wage Growth Tracker are connected through FRED.
Cleveland Fed
Inflation nowcast and expectations for inflation persistence.
Chicago Fed (connected)
NFCI, ANFCI, and CFNAI are connected through FRED for financial conditions and national activity.
San Francisco Fed
r-star / neutral rate for real policy stance and long-end anchors.