Synopsys Inc
SNPS高于价值预期 · 苛刻6 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-10-31- 营收增速
- +15.1%
- 净利率
- 18.9%
- ROE
- 4.7%
- FCF 利润率
- 19.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$89
中枢 IV
$110
乐观上沿
$130
Synopsys Inc（SNPS）：保守价值带 $89–$130 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $110。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $378 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 5%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 12.4% · 零增长下行 $89
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $76.89 – $130.18 · Greenwald 零增长 $89.49 · 零增长基准 $89.49 · 重置 $89.49
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 41% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$14.48 – $31.91 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 729% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$73.40 – $86.89 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.9–12.9% band (9–11% base + 1.9pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 729% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.9pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 6.8 years of owner earnings, adding 1.9pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $-11.25B + 资本化研发 $6.29B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $89.49 / 股. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC，故不计入增长价值。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 7% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 6.8 年所有者盈利 → 加 1.9 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 10.9%–12.9%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.93%–13.88% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.88pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 29.4%；公司过去营收年增 13.8%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 25 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
6 位持有 · 合计 $727.9M · 本季 +3 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$360.9M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.9%
- 市值$266.1M权重（上季→本季）1.7% → 1.8% ▲
- 市值$82.6M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.4%
- 市值$10.3M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$4.0M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$4.0M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Synopsys Inc（SNPS）被 Compounder 追踪的 6 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $727.9M。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham，占其组合 0.9%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Polen Capital（占其组合 1.8%），Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.4%） 和 Christopher Davis（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 3 位新建 SNPS 仓位，1 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Synopsys Inc（SNPS）的这些人还共同重仓 →
SNPS 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-19 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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