American Electric Power
AEP高于价值5 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +8.7%
- 净利率
- 17.0%
- ROE
- 11.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 16.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$58
中枢 IV
$50
乐观上沿
$58
American Electric Power（AEP）：保守价值带 $58 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $50。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $123 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 1%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 14.6% · 零增长下行 $58
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $44.07 – $55.10 · Greenwald 零增长 $58.05 · 零增长基准 $58.05 · 重置 $58.05
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 27% · 所有者盈利收益率 6% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-0.35 – $20.21 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 191% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$46.46 – $53.61 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 191% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 13.3 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $31.75B = $58.05 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 1% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 13.3 年所有者盈利 → 加 4.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 13.0%–15.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.14%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 19.4%；公司过去营收年增 7.1%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
5 位持有 · 合计 $1.29B · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$1.19B权重（上季→本季）0.6% → 0.6% ▼
- 市值$59.5M权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$21.8M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$21.1M权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 1.7% ▼
- 市值$1.5M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
American Electric Power（AEP）被 Compounder 追踪的 5 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $1.29B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 0.6%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Carl Icahn（占其组合 0.7%），Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.1%） 和 David Katz（占其组合 1.7%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 AEP 仓位，3 位加仓，2 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 American Electric Power（AEP）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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