Intl Business Machines Corp
IBM高于价值8 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +7.6%
- 净利率
- 15.7%
- ROE
- 32.4%
- FCF 利润率
- 17.9%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$63
中枢 IV
$104
乐观上沿
$122
Intl Business Machines Corp（IBM）：保守价值带 $63–$122 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $104。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $234 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 7%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 12.6% · 零增长下行 $63
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $69.80 – $121.73 · Greenwald 零增长 $75.01 · 零增长基准 $75.01 · 重置 $7.80
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 42% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$63.46 – $75.01 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.0–13.0% band (9–11% base + 2.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 127% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 7.0 years of owner earnings, adding 2.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $-54.10B + 资本化研发 $17.26B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $7.80 / 股. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 7.0 年所有者盈利 → 加 2.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 11.0%–13.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.23%–13.99% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.99pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
内在价值怎么读SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
8 位持有 · 合计 $105.9M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$71.6M权重（上季→本季）0.4% → 0.7% ▲
- 市值$12.9M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$11.2M权重（上季→本季）2.1% → 2.4% ▲
- 市值$8.7M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$759,267权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$297,654权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1%
- 市值$288,240权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$212,450权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Intl Business Machines Corp（IBM）被 Compounder 追踪的 8 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $105.9M。仓位最大的是 Jim Cullen，占其组合 0.7%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Dodge & Cox（占其组合 0.0%），Arnold Van Den Berg（占其组合 2.4%） 和 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 IBM 仓位，3 位加仓，2 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Intl Business Machines Corp（IBM）的这些人还共同重仓 →
IBM 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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