Meta Platforms Inc-Class A
META高于价值预期 · 温和32 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +22.2%
- 净利率
- 30.1%
- ROE
- 27.8%
- FCF 利润率
- 22.9%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$184
中枢 IV
$488
乐观上沿
$619
Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）：保守价值带 $184–$619 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $488。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $644 截至 2026-07-21）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 11%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $184
价格截至 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $224.26 – $618.69 · Greenwald 零增长 $247.80 · 零增长基准 $247.80 · 重置 $125.74
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 28% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$201.13 – $247.80 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$183.74 – $224.57 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $189.02B + 资本化研发 $134.63B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $125.74 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 11% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 14.7%；公司过去营收年增 16.6%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 11 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
32 位持有 · 合计 $14.07B · 本季 +3 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$2.87B权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 1.6% ▼
- 市值$1.77B权重（上季→本季）6.1% → 7.7% ▲
- 市值$1.76B权重（上季→本季）4.9% → 4.5% ▼
- 市值$1.52B权重（上季→本季）11.4% → 11.1% ▼
- 市值$983.6M权重（上季→本季）5.2% → 4.5% ▼
- 市值$756.0M权重（上季→本季）5.3% → 5.9% ▲
- 市值$752.7M权重（上季→本季）2.5% → 2.5% ▲
- 市值$607.9M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 1.7%
- 市值$523.9M权重（上季→本季）9.8% → 9.2% ▼
- 市值$389.4M权重（上季→本季）6.1% → 5.5% ▼
展开全部 32 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$272.7M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 1.9%
- 市值$249.7M权重（上季→本季）5.8% → 4.2% ▼
- 市值$226.0M权重（上季→本季）17.7% → 17.4% ▼
- 市值$186.0M权重（上季→本季）3.8% → 4.0% ▲
- 市值$176.1M权重（上季→本季）6.9% → 6.4% ▼
- 市值$166.9M权重（上季→本季）0.5% → 0.7% ▲
- 市值$142.1M权重（上季→本季）1.3% → 1.2% ▼
- 市值$115.1M权重（上季→本季）2.5% → 1.9% ▼
- 市值$97.9M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 3.6% ▲
- 市值$92.5M权重（上季→本季）9.2% → 7.4% ▼
- 市值$83.3M权重（上季→本季）20.9% → 21.8% ▲
- 市值$82.8M权重（上季→本季）1.0% → 1.0% ▲
- 市值$67.3M权重（上季→本季）6.7% → 7.0% ▲
- 市值$60.5M权重（上季→本季）4.3% → 4.2% ▼
- 市值$51.5M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 2.5%
- 市值$37.6M权重（上季→本季）8.5% → 7.8% ▼
- 市值$21.2M权重（上季→本季）1.7% → 1.7% ▼
- 市值$4.5M权重（上季→本季）0.8% → 1.0% ▲
- 市值$3.5M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.8% ▼
- 市值$2.6M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$519,494权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.2% ▼
- 市值$213,404权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）被 Compounder 追踪的 32 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $14.07B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 1.6%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Chase Coleman（占其组合 7.7%），Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 4.5%） 和 Bill Ackman（占其组合 11.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 3 位新建 META 仓位，12 位加仓，13 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）的这些人还共同重仓 →
META 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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